Ethereum markets did almost nothing on Friday as we continue to see malaise in this market. Ethereum has over-promised and under-delivered. “Ethereum 2.0” might be something we see in my lifetime, but I would not bet on it based on the lack of production that has happened. The only consistency that I have seen coming out of Ethereum has been delays.
That being said, Ethereum does have a future, but not at extraordinarily high levels, at least not yet. I do think that sometime this week we will break down below the $1000 level. At that point, we are likely to go much lower, and I would not be surprised at all to see Ethereum break back down to the $400 level, the same place it spent the last “crypto winter.” Most people don’t want to hear it, but crypto is about to be dead for a couple of years, and that’s going to affect almost all markets. Granted, Ethereum will be one of the leaders on the way back up, but we don’t know who’s going to be left yet. (I believe that this is much like 1999 and technology stocks, where several of these coins are going to disappear.)
I do think Ethereum will survive this. However, there are a lot of coins that are billed in the ecosystem that are not going to. That will drive down demand, and Ethereum will pay the price as well. I suppose the one good thing about this is the gas fees will get cheaper, whether or not they actually implement some of the improvements that they have been talking about ad nauseam for a couple of years.
The only thing that I would do with this market right now is short it, or perhaps wait for it to collapse another 60% or so, and then start to dip my toe in the water. I have a longer-term plan to buy Ethereum, but I have months to do it, if not a few years. Remember the last crypto winter, a lot of money was made by dipping your toe into the water occasionally for about three years, and then watching the value of your coins skyrocket. We may see that again, but then again we may not, and that’s the real conundrum that most traders are going find right now.
