Bearish view
- Set a sell-stop at 1.0150 and a take-profit at 1.00.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.0250.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Set a buy-stop at 1.0235 and a take-profit at 1.0300.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.0150.
The EUR/USD price rose slightly after the Federal Reserve published minutes of the last monetary policy meeting. The pair rose to 1.0200, which was a few points above this week’s low of 1.0120. It remains substantially lower than last week’s high of 1.036.
Fed minutes and EU inflation data
The EUR/USD price tilted upwards after the FOMC published minutes of the past meeting. The minutes showed that some officials judged that it will be necessary to decelerate the pace of interest rate hikes in a bid to evaluate the impact of the past meetings.
Members were worried that the bank could be tightening at a substantially faster pace than is necessary. In that meeting, the committee decided to hike interest rates by 0.75% for the second straight month. It brought the total rate hikes this year to 225 basis points. The minus added:
“As the stance of monetary policy tightened further, it likely would become appropriate at some point to slow the pace of policy rate increases while assessing the effects of cumulative policy adjustments on economic activity and inflation.”
A lot has happened since the Fed met in July. Data by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that the country’s unemployment rate dropped to 3.5%. Further, inflation moderated slightly in July as it dropped from 9.1% to 8.7%.
On Wednesday, data showed that retail sales did well in July. Headline sales rose at an annual pace of 10.1%. Additionally, big retailers like Walmart and Home Depot published results that were better than expected.
The next key catalyst for the EUR/USD price will be the latest European consumer inflation data. Based on the previous estimates, analysts believe that the headline consumer inflation rose to 8.9% while core inflation rose by 4%.
The pair will also react to the latest existing home sales numbers. Economists expect the data to show that sales dropped from 5.12 million to 4.89 million in July. Fed officials like Esther George and Neel Kashkari will also deliver speeches.
EUR/USD forecast
The four-hour chart shows that the EUR/USD price has been in a strong downward trend this week. It managed to move below last week’s high of 1.0366 to a low of 1.0123. The pair has dropped below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages and the ascending purple trendline. It is also between the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level. The pair will likely continue falling and retest the crucial parity level at 1.000.
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