GBP/USD
The GBP/USD got hammered during the week, as the Bank of England suggested that they were going to have to deal with a two-year recession in that country. Because of this, does make a certain amount of sense that the British pound got hammered, but it’s also worth noting that there was a bit of US dollar weakness on Friday after the jobs report. I anticipate that rallies will still get sold into, but in the meantime, you are probably looking at a scenario where we are still range bound overall.
WTI Crude Oil
The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market rally during most of the week, after initially dipping. At this point, it looks like crude oil is on the edge of a significant breakdown, and if that is in fact going to be the case, is very likely that we continue to see a lot of upward pressure. $100 is a very real possibility, right along with the idea of buying dips going forward. The crude oil market has broken out of a major channel, and now is getting ready to break structure to the upside for the first time.
DAX
The DAX initially fell during the week but found enough buyers underneath the keep the party going. At this point, it looks as if the market is going to try to recover, and perhaps even break above the €13,500 level. This is an extreme amount of resiliency, especially considering all of the issues that European consumers are going to face this year. Nonetheless, the market does what it does, so it looks like we are still in the midst of a bit of a recovery. Alternately, if we break down below the weekly candlestick, we could see this market fall apart, perhaps dropping back down to the €12,500 level.
AUD/USD
The AUD/USD has initially pulled back a bit during the week but then turned around to slam into the 0.65 level. At this point, the market is going to face a significant amount of resistance, so it’ll be interesting to see how this plays out. I think given enough time, we could see a situation where we break out toward the 0.67 handle. However, you should also be aware of the fact that we could stay in consolidation for the meantime as we have seen a lot of noise just underneath.
USD/CAD
The USD/CAD initially rallied against the Canadian dollar, but with the resurgence in oil pricing, it makes a certain amount of sense that we have seen this pair turnaround. Because of this, I suspect that it is more likely than not going to be a situation that sooner or later we will see this pair break down through the area it’s in right now and go looking to the 1.32 level. I would also expect to see a lot of buyers in that general vicinity as there should be plenty of market memory and support in that area.
GBP/JPY
The GBP/JPY has initially pulled back during the trading week, turned around to rally again, then got clubbed over the head by the Bank of England suggesting that there was a two-year recession on the way. However, we have found support right where you would expect to see it, so I think at this point we are more likely than not going to see a bit of a recovery as selling of the Japanese yen should continue. After all, the Bank of Japan continues to buy unlimited bonds, so therefore the Japanese yen is essentially a “dead man walking.”
Bitcoin
Bitcoin continues to be very quiet, although it did just print its third green candle in a row on the weekly chart, suggesting that perhaps something is changing. It’s far too early to think that the markets going to break out, but perhaps this is the consolidation area that longer-term traders have been waiting on? Because of this, I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we get a bigger move, with a breakdown below the $18,000 level being extraordinarily negative, while a break above the $25,000 level could kick off a new bullish market.
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD has had a wildly, initially plunging after the Federal Reserve came out and stated that they were going to stay tight for much longer than the market anticipated. Our, we have seen a complete turnaround and therefore it looks like we are going to threaten the parity level again. If we can break above parity, it’s possible that the Euro could go looking to the one .02 level above. That does not necessarily mean that is going to be easy to get there, but it certainly looks like we are going to threaten that area. Otherwise, I would anticipate a lot of consolidation and back and forth over the next week or so.
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