GBP/USD
The British pound has rallied a bit during the trading week, as we are reaching toward the 200-Week EMA. If we can break higher, then the market is likely to go looking to the 1.30 level, and although I think that is likely to be the outcome, I also recognize that we could be a bit quiet and sideways over the next couple of weeks. Underneath, the 1.2650 level should continue to offer support. In general, this is a market that I think you continue to favor the upside, but whether we get momentum during vacation season is a completely different question altogether.
EUR/USD
The euro has fallen rather hard during the trading week, and now we are hanging about the 1.09 level. The market is testing a major uptrend line which is the bottom of a huge channel, and that channel of course is something that people have been paying attention to for a while. If we can turn around and break above the top of the candlestick for the week, then it’s likely that we could go looking to the 200-Week EMA. If we break above there, then the euro takes off to the upside. On the other hand, if we turn around and break down below the 50-Week EMA, then the market could drop down to the 1.06 level.
USD/CHF
The US dollar has rallied rather significantly against the Swiss franc again this week, as we continue to see the US dollar pick up a bit of strength. At this point, we have a lot to pay attention to, with the 0.89 level being crucial, but if we can break above the 0.90 level, we could see a huge move to the upside over the longer term. Keep an eye on the US dollar overall and keep an eye on the fact that we are at a major bottom on the monthly chart. I do hold a long position now, but it’s a small one that I’m basically using to earn a bit of swap at the end of each day.
USD/CAD
The US dollar has rallied significantly against the Canadian dollar, even though oil has been a bit strong. At this point, I think the market is trying to reach the 1.3650 level, an area that has been resistant previously. If you can break above there, then the market is likely to go looking to the 1.38 level above, which is the top of the overall consolidation area. Underneath, the 1.33 level features support in the form of not only previous support but also the fact that the 50-Week EMA.
USD/JPY
The US dollar has rallied significantly during the trading week to test the ¥146.55 level. This is an area that has been important previously, and therefore if we break above there, then the market is likely to continue going higher, but I don’t necessarily know that it’s going to be easy. All things being equal, I think a short-term pullback offers a lot of buying opportunities since there is a significant amount of swap to be had at the end of the day. The Bank of Japan continues to be ultra-loose with its monetary policy, so I don’t have any interest in trying to fight this uptrend.
NASDAQ 100
The NASDAQ 100 initially tried to rally during the trading week, testing the 15,250 level before rolling over again. The market then fell toward the 14,600 level where we are starting to see a little bit of support. This is an area that previously had been resistance, and I do think at this point we have the possibility of a little bit of a bounce, but if we break down below the weekly low, then I think it opens the possibility of a move to the 14,000 level.
Silver
Silver has been noisy during the week but is seemingly ready to settle down with a hammer. This of course is a bullish sign, or at the very least a stable one. I think if the market can check out the top of the weekly candlestick, we will then go looking to the $25 level. After that, we can see the market to investigate the $25.50 level, maybe even the $26 level. On the other hand, if we turn around and break down below the $22 level, it’s likely that silver could fall all the way down to the $20 level.
US Oil
The US oil market has fallen significantly during the week, but we have tested the 50-Week EMA and the $80 level. On Friday, we are at least seeing some type of fight to turn things around, so if we can recapture the $82 level, then I think it’s probably only a matter of time before he breaks out to the upside. Remember that Saudi Arabia is willingly cutting back 1 million barrels per day in supply, and right now it looks like that is still the focus of the markets as we continue to grind higher over the last couple of months.
