- The EUR/USD exhibited a significant rally during Wednesday's trading session, marking a potential pause in the recent downward spiral. After a substantial selloff, the market managed to break back above the psychologically significant 1.05 level.
- While this round number is bound to attract attention, it's essential to recognize it for what it is—a figure on a chart.
- The rally above this level opens up the possibility of a move towards the 1.06 level, which was a previous point of descent. However, it's crucial to approach this rebound with caution, as Friday's jobs data release looms on the horizon.
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The size of the candlestick may appear impressive, but it doesn't necessarily alter the longer-term trend. Traders should remain vigilant for signs of exhaustion on shorter-term charts, providing opportunities to initiate short positions. The broader economic situation in Europe appears challenging, and with rising interest rates in the United States, the US dollar has become more attractive, exerting downward pressure on the euro. Furthermore, the conditions in Europe suggest that the European Central Bank (ECB) may need to implement looser monetary policy sooner than the Federal Reserve, adding to the euro's woes.
Be Cautious
The recent occurrence of the "death cross," where the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crossed below the 200-Day EMA, signals a more extended downtrend. This technical indicator reinforces the bearish sentiment surrounding the euro. Consequently, attempting to buy into this market doesn't seem prudent in the near term. If the market continues to rally from here, traders should watch for signs of exhaustion to capitalize on potential opportunities.
In conclusion, the euro staged a notable rally following a substantial selloff. While the market has breached the 1.05 level, it's essential to maintain a cautious outlook. The 1.06 level represents a potential resistance zone, but the broader economic landscape in Europe and rising US interest rates continue to exert downward pressure on the euro. The "death cross" further reinforces the bearish trend, making it wise to approach this market with a focus on short positions. Ultimately, the euro may offer value for acquiring "cheap US dollars" over time, with caution being a prudent approach as we approach the end of the week.
Potential Signal: I am a seller of any rally in this pair, with an eye on the 1.05 area. I am aiming to reach 1.0250, and have a stop loss on 1.0610
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