- Gold prices hovered around $2,352 an ounce during Tuesday's trading, after posting gains in the previous session supported by growing expectations of monetary policy easing by major global central banks.
- Overall, gold prices have gained about 1.3% on a weekly basis, adding to their year-to-date gains of over 14%.
Data on Monday showed that US manufacturing activity slowed for the second consecutive month in May, while construction spending unexpectedly fell in April due to a decline in non-residential activity. This has increased speculation that the Federal Reserve has room to cut US interest rates this year. Overall, traders are currently pricing in a 60% chance of a US rate cut in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is expected to cut interest rates this week, while the Bank of Canada and the People's Bank of China are also expected to ease policy soon. Now, investors are awaiting the ADP US employment report on Wednesday and US nonfarm payrolls data on Friday to assess the health of the US economy and its impact on the Fed's policy path.
In line with gold's performance, silver prices, the sister metal to gold, rose above $30 an ounce. Also, white metal rose about 0.7% last week and is up 28% year-to-date.
The latest economic data fueled Monday’s rally in the metals market. According to the results of the economic calendar, the US manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) issued by the Institute for Supply Management, which measures the general trend of the sector, fell to 48.7 in May, down from 49.2 in April. Obviously, this was less than economists’ expectations of 49.6. Any reading below the 50 level indicates contraction. Also, the PMI data revealed a decline in new orders, a decline in prices, and an increase in employment rates. In other manufacturing PMI data, the S&P Global Alternative Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.3, up from 50 and above the market consensus estimate of 50.9.
In addition, US construction spending fell 0.1% in April, missing market expectations for a 0.2% gain. As a result of Monday morning’s data, the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDP model estimates growth of 1.8% in the second quarter, well below 5%.
The poor data proved to be good news for gold prices, as it bolstered the chances of a rate cut. Furthermore, the Fed has suggested that it will focus on monetary policy if broader economic data, such as a slowdown in the labor market, warrants easing.
Overall, other components of the market that typically influence the yellow metal were lower on the news. The US dollar index (DXY), a measure of the greenback against a basket of major currencies, fell to 104.10, having pared its year-to-date decline to less than 3%. A weaker dollar is usually beneficial for dollar-denominated assets because it makes them cheaper for foreign investors to buy.
Another factor affecting the gold market, US Treasury yields fell on Monday, with the yield on the 10-year note falling 11 basis points to around 4.4%. The yield on the 2-year note fell 7.2 basis points to 4.821%, while the 30-year note was little changed at 4.55%. As is known, gold is sensitive to fluctuations in interest rates because it affects the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.
Gold Price Forecast and Analysis Today:
According to the performance on the daily chart attached, bulls have started to take a new offensive stance. Expectations for the future of the psychological resistance of $ 2,400 per ounce will increase again if prices move towards the levels of $ 2,365 and $ 2,380 per ounce again. Moreover, this may happen if the US dollar continues to decline amid lower-than-expected US jobs numbers this week. On the other hand, the psychological support of $2300 per ounce will remain the most important for the strength of bear control. I still prefer to buy gold from every downward level.
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