My previous EUR/USD signal on 17th June was not triggered as there was no bearish price action when any of the resistance levels were first reached.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
- Risk 0.75%.
- Trades may only be taken before 5pm London time today.
Short Trade Ideas
- Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.0755, $1.0782, or $1.0817.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.0724, $1.0710, or $1.0694.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
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EUR/USD Analysis
In my previous EUR/USD forecast on 17th June, I wrote that the Euro was looking weak while the
US Dollar may get some boost from Fed member Kashkari’s hawkish comments.
I was looking for a short trade really and that was not a great call as the price rose strongly during that day’s London session.
The technical picture now is a bit different, dominated by two contrasting features:
- The price chart below shows that the price has begun moving within a symmetrical ascending price channel, which is a weakly bullish sign. A bullish feature of this chart pattern is the confluence between the lower trend line and the support level at $1.0724 which could provide a long trade entry opportunity if reached later.
- The US Dollar is in a long-term bullish trend, which would suggest that a long trade entry in this currency pair is not a great idea. However, it is also true that the US Dollar Index is bumping up against an area of strong resistance, making it hard for the Dollar to rise much further, which reinforces the idea that the line of least resistance in this currency pair is upwards.
For these reasons I take a bullish bias, but only a weak one, so I think scalping or at least being very conservative with profit targets will be the best way to trade this currency pair today.
I will enter a long trade if we get a firm bullish bounce rejecting the support level at $1.0724 and the trend line.
There is nothing of high importance scheduled today concerning the EUR. Regarding the USD, there will be a release the ADP Non-Farm Employment Chance Forecast at 1:15pm London time, followed by Unemployment Claims at 1:30, ISM Services PMI at 3pm, and the FOMC Meeting Minutes at 7pm.
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