Bullish view
- Buy the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6625.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6500.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Set a sell-stop at 0.6565 and a take-profit at 0.6500.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6625.
The AUD/USD pair waivered ahead of key economic data from Australia and the United States. It pulled back from last week’s high of 0.6605 to a low of 0.6571. It remains about 3.5% above its lowest point this month.
Important economic data ahead
The AUD/USD pair could be highly volatile ahead of several important economic data from the US and Australia.
Australia will be the first one to release a crucial data on Tuesday when it publishes the latest Wage Price Index (WPI) data. This is an important number because it will show whether wages, which have an impact on inflation, were rising or not.
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The average estimate among analysts is that the index rose from 0.8% in Q1 to 0.9% in Q3, leading to a 4.2% year-on-year increase.
This report will be followed by the country’s July jobs numbers on Thursday. Economists see the data showing that the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1% as the economy added 20.4k jobs during the month.
Strong jobs numbers could reinforce the case that the RBA will leave interest rates unchanged for longer than the Fed. Economists expect the bank to start cutting in the first quarter of 2025.
The other important AUD/USD data to watch will be the US inflation and retail sales reports. The first one will come out on Tuesday when the country publishes the latest Producer Price Index (PPI) report.
Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Wednesday. Economists see the headline CPI having a small pickup in July, which will not derail the Fed from the upcoming rate cut.
The US will next publish the latest retail sales, industrial production, and manufacturing output numbers on Thursday.
AUD/USD technical analysis
The AUD/USD exchange rate has pulled back slightly in the past few days as US recession risks eased following the encouraging US jobless claims data. It retreated from 0.6600 to 0.6570 and was trading at the 50% Fibonacci Retracement point.
The 50-period and 25-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) have formed a bullish crossover pattern. It has also formed an inverse head and shoulders chart pattern.
Therefore, the pair will likely resume the bullish trend since the RBA is set to maintain higher rates for longer than the Fed. If this happens, it could rise to the 61.8% retracement point at 0.6630.
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