Signals for the Lira Against the US Dollar Today
- Risk 0.50%.
Bullish Entry Points:
- Open a buy order at 33.85.
- Set a stop-loss order below 34.15.
- Move the stop-loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the strong resistance levels at 33.65.
Bearish Entry Points:
- Place a sell order for 34.15.
- Set a stop-loss order at or above 34.24.
- Move the stop loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the support levels at 34.00.
Turkish lira Analysis:
The Turkish Lira depreciated against the US Dollar in early week trading, with the dollar recording new gains despite a global dollar decline. Furthermore, the pair hit new record levels at 34 lira per dollar early Monday morning. Despite the divergence in monetary policy between the Turkish Central Bank, which kept interest rates at a record 50% as part of plans to curb inflation. The Fed announcing a start to interest rate cuts next month, pressure on the Turkish currency continued. Moreover, the data related to economic figures, which was generally good, did not provide any support for the Turkish currency. Moreover, this decline coincided with the Turkish Central Bank's announcement of an increase in its foreign exchange reserves to about 145 billion dollars.
Meanwhile, the high interest rate supported the decline in inflation during the last two months to reach about 62%, while the Turkish Central Bank aims to reduce inflation to 34% by the end of the year. Furthermore, statements by Turkish monetary and fiscal policy officials about achieving inflation reduction and pledging to maintain high interest rates continue, investors in the Turkish interest rate are concerned about the interest rate remaining really high. Also, as some reports mentioned a large withdrawal of hot money from the Turkish economy, which continued to put pressure on the Turkish currency.
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On the other hand, the lira's decline did not have a negative impact on all sectors, as local reports mentioned a recovery in the export and tourism sectors, coinciding with the lira's decline. Also, exports increased by 2% during the first six months of 2024 to reach about 125 billion dollars. Likewise, the number of foreign tourists increased by about 8% in the period from January to July to reach 28 million tourists.
TRYUSD Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
Technically, the US Dollar against the Turkish Lira “USD/TRY” rose to its highest levels ever. This morning, The US currency rose to the round number of 34.00 lira. The overall upward trend on the pair continues with the pair moving at the upper limit of the upward price channel on the daily timeframe, as shown by the chart. At the same time, the pair maintained its trading above the 50 and 200 moving averages, respectively, which intersect positively (golden cross) on the daily timeframe, as well as on the four-hour timeframe. If the price rises, it targets resistance levels cantered around 34.10 and 34.25 lira, respectively. While in the event of a decline in the pair, it targets support levels at 33.80 and 33.70 lira, respectively. Finally, the forecast for the Turkish Lira price included a decline in the pair if it stabilizes below the upper limit of the channel.
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