The USD/ZAR opened lower this morning with another surge and touched the 17.61400 vicinity briefly, this in the wake of a lower move seen on Friday before going into weekend.
- Traders who have been tempted to look for upside reversals in the USD/ZAR as it continues to display a downwards trend may have been able to profit from fluctuations and occasional volatility via price action, but speculators who continue to look for lower momentum in the currency pair are likely enjoying better days.
- As of this writing the USD/ZAR exchange rate is near the 17.76670 ratio with fast results being exhibited.
Upon opening this morning the USD/ZAR fell to the 17.61400 level, but then reversed higher as financial institutions may have concluded that selling was a bit overdone. Before the weekend, the USD/ZAR was trading near the 17.98000 level when U.S Fed Chairman Jerome Powell admitted the Federal Reserve needs to begin cutting interest rates. The USD/ZAR began to selloff quickly and concluded Friday’s trading near the 17.70900 mark.
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Confirmation of Behavioral Sentiment via the USD/ZAR
Traders who are skeptics of the downside momentum in the USD/ZAR and believe that it will suffer a bullish trend upwards that will be prolonged need to consider behavioral sentiment. The USD/ZAR opened last week’s trading near the 17.70100 ratio. The currency pair then moved to a high around 18.05700 on Thursday. While that certainly is an upwards trend, after the Fed speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium the USD/ZAR promptly fell back to the lower levels.
What the price action of the USD/ZAR shows us is that the currency pair is correlating well to the broad Forex market, and that financial institutions which became cautious during the middle of last week and may have been playing it safe by buying the USD/ZAR, suddenly had their weaker USD centric outlooks reconfirmed by Jerome Powell on Friday. This returned the USD/ZAR to its known lower price realm which it had traded on the 19th of August.
This Morning’s Opening a Potential Signal of Things to Come
It is difficult for day traders to bet on momentum shifts when they are using too much leverage and need to get out of trades quickly. The fast movement in the USD/ZAR makes it hard to trade unless entry price orders are used to insure a fill meets the traders’ parameters and allows them to pursue their chosen direction. The early and strong selloff this morning to new lows touched levels not seen since late July 2023.
- The selling exuberance early this morning may have been overdone, but if the USD/ZAR now can maintain current prices and resistance proves firm around the 17.80000 to 17.82000 levels then this could signal financial institutions believe lower values should be considered.
- Choppy trading may ensue today for the USD/ZAR as it tries to find equilibrium.
- If the lower price realm is maintained, pursuit of lower values via quick hitting targets may be attractive near-term.
USD/ZAR Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 17.80100
Current Support: 17.75200
High Target: 17.82775
Low Target: 17.70200
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