Technical traders of the USD/ZAR have seen a wide fast range the past handful of days, but importantly – at least up until now – the currency pair has maintained a known realm.
- As of this writing the USD/ZAR pair is near the 18.40000 level, but traders who are paying attention at this moment likely see fast movement in which fluctuations are rather brutal.
- Nervous sentiment is making its way through the broad Forex market and USD centric questions are part of the equation.
- The broad equity markets are showing nervousness in Asia too.
Inexperienced traders may find that their best trade today is no trade. Yes, there will be opportunity to make money, but the ability to suddenly profit in a big way also means there is a possibility of losing in a big way. The USD/ZAR hit the 18.11500 vicinity on Thursday and Friday. This lower value is suspicious because the move seen on Thursday took place before the U.S jobs numbers were published. Then on Friday the USD/ZAR sank again and essentially challenged the same lower realm momentarily.
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This Morning’s Move Higher in the USD/ZAR
The USD/ZAR has been trading with less nervousness due to domestic issues in South Africa. Again, not everything is solved in the nation, but economically the belief that there will be more transparency for the moment via government fiscal policies has helped gained the confidence of financial institutions. The move higher in the USD/ZAR early this morning upon opening is likely being generated for other reasons, but it is important not to create false narrative when there is little real evidence.
Some traders may believe for instance the Forex market has turned in awkward results because of noise from the Middle East, but the price of WTI Crude Oil has remained quite calm. Also, the price of gold has remained in its known price range. There may be a knock on effect coming from Japan and the market turbulence there, and if this is the case then the USD/ZAR may see more reactionary trading as global financial markets either become calmer or grow more frantic during the day.
Test of Resistance Levels in the USD/ZAR
The USD/ZAR is now testing near-term resistance levels not seen since early last week. The outcome of the U.S jobs report this past Friday should have helped fundamentally deliver a more bearish USD/ZAR logically. This because financial institutions would be expected to believe the U.S Fed will have to cut interest rates in September and possibly consider a November cut, but lower price action has certainly not occurred.
- Again, on Friday the low in the USD/ZAR did not really threaten Thursday’s low, this tells us something is amiss and financial institutions are nervous about something else.
- Traders need to be careful today in the USD/ZAR.
- What may look like overbought territory could be highs generated due to nervousness which may have more hidden power short-term.
USD/ZAR Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 18.43100
Current Support: 18.39200
High Target: 18.46875
Low Target: 18.32700
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