Bearish View
- Sell the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6150.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6325.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish View
- Buy the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6325.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6150.
The AUD/USD pair changed slightly this week as the forex industry continues to experience low volume due to the Christmas holiday. The Aussie was trading at 0.6250 against the greenback, a few points above last week’s low of 0.6200.
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RBA Minutes and US Home Sales Data
The AUD/USD pair was largely flat on Tuesday morning after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released minutes of the last meeting.
The committee left interest rates unchanged, continuing a trend that has been ongoing throughout the year. These minutes showed that some officials considered cutting rates in the December meeting but remained concerned about inflation.
Economists now expect that the RBA will start to cut interest rates in the first quarter of 2025. The most likely scenario is where the bank slashes rates in its February meeting because of the slowing economy.
The AUD/USD pair was little changed after the US released a weak consumer confidence report. According to the Conference Board, consumer confidence fell from 112.8 in November to 104.7 in December, missing the median estimate of 112.9.
The next important AUD/USD catalyst will be the upcoming US new home sales data. Economists expect these numbers to reveal that sales rose from 610,000 to 666,000 in November.
The US will also release data on durable goods orders. Data compiled by Reuters expect the data to show that durable goods orders fell from 0.2% in October to minus 0.3% in November. Core durable goods orders are expected to rise from 0.1% to 0.3%.
These are all important leading economic indicators, but their impact on the AUD/USD pair will be limited because of the Christmas holidays. Also, these numbers will have a limited impact on the Federal Reserve.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
The AUD/USD pair has wavered in the past three days as the post-Federal Reserve crash stalled. It has moved below the second support of the Woodie pivot point and the 50-day moving average.
The pair has dropped below the key support at 0.6350, the lowest swing in August this year. It has also formed a bearish flag chart pattern, a popular continuation sign. Therefore, the pair will likely continue falling, with the next reference point being at 0.6150, the third support of the Woodie pivot point.
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