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Gold Analysis: Will it Continue to Rise?

By Mahmoud Abdallah
Mahmoud has been working fulltime in the Foreign Exchange markets for 12 years. Offers his analysis, articles and recommendations at the most renewed Arabic websites specialized in the global financial markets, and his experience gained a lot of interest among Arab traders. Works on providing technical analysis, market news, free signals and more with follow up for at least 12 hours a day, and aims to simplify forex trading and the concept of trading for his audience.
  • Gold prices have remained relatively unchanged following Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's comments suggesting that the US economy remains resilient.
  • As expected, the gold price index has been trading within a narrow range, awaiting the release of US non-farm payroll data on Friday.
  • Gold prices today are stable around $2,655 per ounce at the time of writing the analysis. Global geopolitical tensions continue to support gold gains.
  • Recently, political uncertainty has increased in South Korea and France, in addition to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Russian-Ukrainian war.

XAU/USD Analysis Today -5/12: USD/TRY: Will It Rise? (Chart)

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Current Gold Prices

As of this writing, gold prices are hovering around $2655 per ounce. Global geopolitical tensions continue to support gold gains. Recent political uncertainty in South Korea and France, coupled with ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine war, have fuelled demand for safe-haven assets like gold.

Stability in Gold Prices

According to gold trading platforms, gold prices have been consolidating within tight ranges as financial markets continue to assess political and monetary policy expectations while closely monitoring major economic data releases. Recent economic data showed that US job opportunities exceeded expectations, indicating continued resilience in the US labour market. Investors are now eagerly awaiting the release of US non-farm payroll data on Friday, which, along with statements from Federal Reserve officials, will shape expectations for the Fed's decisions this month and in the coming months.

Currently, there is a 73% probability of a 25-basis point interest rate cut, which would benefit the gold market by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets.

Stability of the US Dollar After Powell's Comments

Following Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's affirmation of the US economy's resilience, the US Dollar Index (DXY) stabilized around 106.30. Powell highlighted stronger-than-expected growth and a robust labor market amidst ongoing inflationary pressures. He also indicated that the Fed's policy is moving towards neutral levels. His comments, along with weaker-than-expected services PMI data of 52.1 for November (down from 56 in October and below expectations of 55.5), have strengthened expectations for accelerated US interest rate cuts.

Meanwhile, ADP data showed that the US private sector added a total of 146,000 jobs in November, slightly below the expected 150,000, but still indicating resilience in the US Labor market. All eyes are now on the crucial US non-farm payroll report for further clarity on the path of Federal Reserve policy and US dollar expectations. Following Powell's comments, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond also declined to around 4.18%.

Trading Tips:

Dear follower of TradersUp, always make gold a basic element in your investment portfolio as it is one of the most important safe havens and the most important trading products around the world for individuals, global banks and institutions. Furthermore, it is recommended to buy gold from every downward level.

Gold Price Technical Analysis Today:

Dear reader, it is clear according to the performance on the daily chart above and according to the expectations of gold analysts today that the trend of gold is turning upwards. Moreover, it lacks sufficient momentum to confirm the strength of bulls' control over the trend. Thus, this requires moving towards the resistance levels of 2670 and the psychological resistance of $ 2700 per ounce. The RSI is neutral, which confirms the relative balance between the bears and bulls. The MACD is turning higher. Moreover, we still prefer to buy gold from every downtrend and the closest support levels for gold currently are $2628, $2610 and $2575 respectively. Decisively, always work with the trading advice of not risking and activating profit limit and stop loss orders to ensure the safety of your trading account from any sudden price reversals.

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Mahmoud Abdallah
Mahmoud has been working fulltime in the Foreign Exchange markets for 12 years. Offers his analysis, articles and recommendations at the most renewed Arabic websites specialized in the global financial markets, and his experience gained a lot of interest among Arab traders. Works on providing technical analysis, market news, free signals and more with follow up for at least 12 hours a day, and aims to simplify forex trading and the concept of trading for his audience.

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