- During my daily analysis of the commodity markets, I always pay close attention to what gold is doing, because it can give you an idea of several things at once.
- The action on Monday suggests that we are not quite ready to get explosively bullish, and that probably means that traders are not looking to gold for safety at the moment.
- I don’t know how long this lasts, and I also have to ask the question as to whether or not this has something to do with the lack of volume at this time of year. You could certainly lay the price action at the feet of a lack of trader participation as Christmas is on Wednesday.
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Technical Analysis
The technical analysis for the gold market is quite interesting, because we are sitting just above the $2600 level, an area that has been support multiple times. Furthermore, we have the 50 Day EMA sitting just above, and that of course could cause some noise. Underneath, we have a trendline that should be offering support near the $2600 level, so it all ties together quite nicely. At this to the fact that we have been in an uptrend for what seemed like a lifetime, and you have the real possibility of a market that will eventually attract enough attention that money will flow into it.
That being said, if we were to break down below the $2550 level, I think it probably leads to deeper selling pressure, at least down to the $2500 level where you would have a lot of options traders, and of course the 200 Day EMA. In general, I don’t think that happens, but I think we are trying to find some type of footing here in order to coast through the holidays. I’m not overly bullish of this market at the moment, but I don’t want to sell it anytime soon. I think it’s more or less going to be a slow and gentle grind higher.
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