The USD/MXN has gained slightly upwards in trading the past couple of days, but this has taken place in thin market conditions and correlated with USD centric strength which has been exhibited.
- In very quiet market conditions early this morning the USD/MXN is near the 20.38310 ratio depending on the bid or ask being looked at by traders.
- Speculators need to understand that Forex globally is not demonstrating significant volumes because of the holiday season and the impending New Year’s Day celebrations which will shutter nearly all financial institutions.
- Prices must be treated carefully by traders, because the values being demonstrated may largely be occurring because of wide spreads via Forex offers.
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The USD/MXN has climbed slightly higher in the past week of trading, actually attaining most of its move since Friday when the 20.19000 vicinity came into view momentarily and then produced a reversal upwards. The USD/MXN started its trading last week near the 20.14500 ratio and incrementally creeped higher which was largely a result of the widespread USD centric strength still being seen across Forex.
Holiday Trading and Speculative Bets on the USD/MXN
Trading in the USD/MXN is not going to produce huge volumes today. Retail traders who insist on wagering on the currency pair over the next twenty-four hours need to understand they are participating in limited markets which can produce sudden swings of value that are not anticipated. This is because with limited trading via financial institutions, large orders which come in unexpectedly can create momentary havoc. Speculators should also understand that unless they are actually participating in the cash Forex markets that their wagers are not the ones which will be affecting the USD/MXN.
Traders should not be overly ambitious in the USD/MXN today and tomorrow. By this time on Tuesday a lot of the existing volume in Forex will begin to evaporate as financial institutions disappear. There is not going to be a lot of noise in the marketplace and existing behavioral sentiment will continue to be the main ingredient, meaning the USD centric strength via mid-term outlooks will stir Forex. Looking for big moves in the USD/MXN over the next twenty-four hours may not produce much success, but then again the large sudden cash orders that do come can cause bedlam.
Near-Term Sentiment vs. Slightly Longer Outlook
The Mexican Peso has shown the ability to selloff from its highs produced in November. Nervousness surrounding the election of President-elect Trump has been digested. There are certainly going to be complications and difficult days in which Mexico and the U.S negotiate trade and working agreements, but both sides have done this before when President Trump was in office during his first term.
- Support and highs above 20.00000 for the moment seem to be a barometer, and questions about where resistance will continue to manifest above is a consideration for traders of the USD/MXN.
- The notion the currency pair remains in overbought territory may be correct, but the near-term is not likely to produce a sustained downturn.
- The coming weeks however may see more bearish notions accumulate, but how much of an impact the desire to sell the USD/MXN will have remains a tough question.
USD/MXN Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 20.39300
Current Support: 20.34100
High Target: 20.44400
Low Target: 20.29500
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