- The US dollar rallied slightly during the trading session on Thursday, as we continue to see greenback strength.
- That being said, it has been slumping a little bit as of late.
- I don't know that it's necessarily anything bigger than taking a breather. But the Mexican peso specifically has been beaten up pretty wildly this year.
I think we've got a situation where we are just simply trying to determine whether or not hanging around the 20 pesos level makes sense. The 50 day EMA is sitting right there as well. So, I think we've got a potential short-term floor in the market. Longer term, we're going to have to pay attention to risk appetite and the noise around potential tariffs. Things in Mexico seem to calm down, but Canada now is on fire with the incoming Trump administration. So, the whole North American situation is going to be interesting to watch over the next couple of months. But Mexico is slipping into very slow growth, perhaps even recession. And if that's going to be the case, then the Mexican peso will pay the price.
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Furthermore, if the border does get closed in the United States, and a lot of immigrants suddenly exit, which we are starting to see in various places, that will bring down the remittances of dollars back into Mexico as well. So, everything lines up for the US dollar to remain somewhat strong. Things have been calm over the last couple of days. So, I would need to see a little bit of a bounce here to get excited again. And I would recognize that the 21 pesos level above has been important longer term. So I think we're just kind of killing time between 20 and 21 pesos, much like we did for a couple of years from 2021 to 2023.
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