- The US dollar has rallied significantly against the Mexican peso during the trading session, but as you can see, we are still very much consolidating.
- The 20 pesos level underneath offered a significant short-term floor, and that makes a certain amount of sense, considering that it's a large round psychologically significant figure.
- Technical traders will be paying attention to the fact that it was previous resistance, with the 50 day EMA sitting right there.
If we do rally from here, I believe that the 20.5 level is an area worth watching as it has been resistant previously, and then the 21 level which obviously is a bit of a ceiling. Keep in mind that there are a lot of things at play here, not the least of which of course will be the potential for terrorist against the Mexican economy which will be devastating to Mexico.
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Immigration Matters
Furthermore, you also have immigration issues where Trump wants a border that is secured, and he wants to throw out a lot of illegal workers. Those illegal migrants send a lot of money back to Mexico. So it most certainly has an influence on this USD/MXN forex pair, something that a lot of people don't think about. With all of this being said, and the fact that the Mexican economy is a bit shaky at the moment, I think you've got a situation where very well could see the US dollar eventually break above the 21 level, but it's not going to happen in the short term. Right now, I'm looking more or less for more back and forth sideways choppy behavior with an emphasis on buying the dip, and in fact I would not be a seller of this pair until we broke down below the 19 pesos level, something that doesn't look very likely.
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