The USD/BRL closed around the 6.0945 mark yesterday. The USD/BRL was able to touch lows near the 6.0310 ratio on Friday, this before the strong U.S jobs numbers created more USD strength across the Forex boards worldwide and the currency pair popped higher. The USD/BRL has actually seen a selloff since touching highs before the Christmas and New Year’s celebrations, but the currency pair does remain within the higher elements of its long-term range.
The fact that President-elect Trump will take power in less than one week is known. However, the noise that is being generated from some South American spheres continues to show reactionary attitudes that are not at ease regarding the change of policies which will occur in the White House next week.
Brazil and U.S Relations and the Brazilian Real
This past weekend Venezuelan Nicolas Maduro threatened Puerto Rico with a takeover via the use of Brazilian troops. I am not making this up folks. While on the surface this is laughable, it also shows the level of rhetoric which can be expected by Trump’s opponents abroad. President Lula da Silva is not about to help Maduro with his fantasy, but hyperbole from South America will not make financial institutions feel at ease regarding the outlook for Brazil which still has to rely on trade with the States. The U.S is Brazil’s second biggest trading partner after China.
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The USD/BRL remains firmly above the 6.0000 level. Last week’s move towards the ratio was certainly of interest, but the stronger U.S jobs number ended the challenge quickly. Now the 6.1000 ratio is again in sight and traders will certainly watch this level as a barometer today. The U.S will release inflation data today and tomorrow which will have an effect on global Forex if there are surprises.
Speculative Notions for the USD/BRL
The USD/BRL remains within a range that on the surface does appear overbought, but sentiment remains fragile regarding the outlook that Lula da Silva and Donald Trump will take together. The working relationship between Brazil and the U.S is important for both countries, but Brazil and the Brazilian Real have more to lose if trade relations sour.
- Near-term sentiment will focus on Brazilian fiscal policy and noise regarding potential tariffs.
- But these concerns are already known and have been factored into the USD/BRL, meaning some downside wagers when resistance levels are hit may be enticing for speculators if sentiment remains calm.
- However, traders should not get overly ambitious with selling positions and simply look for quick hitting wagers taking advantage of reversals off technical resistance levels which might emerge.
Brazilian Real Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 6.1060
Current Support: 6.0900
High Target: 6.1390
Low Target: 6.0760
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