Potential signal:
- I am very bullish of this pair and if we can close on a daily chart above the 0.9250 level, I think we go to the parity level over the longer term.
- I would have a stop loss just below the 0.91 level.
The US dollar rallied a bit during the early hours on Monday, as the market is threatening a crucial resistance barrier in the form of the 0.92 level. The 0.92 level has been important multiple times in the past, so it’ll be very interesting to see whether or not we can break above this level. If we can, it’s very likely that the US dollar will continue to go much higher. In fact, it would not surprise me at all to see this market go all the way to the 1.00 level before it is all said and done, assuming that this keeps up.
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Interest Rate Differential
The interest rate differential between the United States and Switzerland could continue to attract a lot of buyers in this pair, because you get paid at the end of every day to simply hang on to this trade. I have no interest in trying to get short of this market, and although I think that we have a potential pullback just waiting to happen, I believe that the 0.91 level would be an area that I think is important. If we break down below there, then you could be looking at the 0.90 level, followed by the 0.89 level underneath there.
For what it is worth, the 0.89 level has just seen the 50 Day EMA break above it, so I think that is a very bullish sign, and I think that would be the “floor in the market” as things stand right now. I believe this is a market that continues to be noisy, but with the Swiss National Bank cutting interest rates by 50 basis points recently, it shows just how concerned Switzerland is about the economy. This is especially true considering that the majority of the business conducted in Switzerland that leaves the country ends up in the European Union. In other words, this is just a Switzerland problem, it’s a Germany, Italy, and France problem.
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