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USD/MXN Analysis: Jumps Amid Tariff Concerns

By Robert Petrucci
Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services.

The USD/MXN has gapped higher in early trading this morning as financial institutions deal with nervous sentiment, while grappling with a potentially volatile near-term outlooks for the currency pair.

USD/MXN Analysis Today 27/01: Jumps Amid Tariffs (graph)

This past Friday the USD/MXN touched the 20.13300 vicinity briefly as the currency pair exhibited a rather solid incremental downwards slope which had started earlier in the week. Financial institutions were showing signs of less nervousness even in the midst of President Trump taking over of the White House and his promised policies. The USD/MXN went into the weekend near the 20.26000 ratio which was a small movement higher considering that the close was near the lower end of the week’s price range.

However, and it is a loud however, things this morning rapidly changed regarding behavioral sentiment in financial institutions. President Trump had an open disagreement with Columbia on Sunday and took his lightning fast and loud rhetoric which threatened the nation with a punitive tariff.

Trump’s Power of Tariffs has Financial Institutions Concerned

The potential of Trump using tariffs as a tool to accomplish policy changes with nations such as Columbia, and yes – Mexico, are not small threats. The USD/MXN gapped higher this morning in early trading and as of this writing is near 20.44300 with rapid fluctuations being demonstrated. The ability of Trump to initiate tariffs against Mexico in order to change illegal migrant entry into the U.S is a tool the White House will clearly use if necessary.

Trump has repeated his rhetoric since taking power towards Mexico, and in the coming days financial institutions may hear louder voices. The USD/MXN which enjoyed a rather tranquil week of trading the past handful of days is likely to return to volatile conditions. The ability to jump higher early this morning before North American financial institutions begin active trading is a warning sign for retail traders considering pursuit of the USD/MXN.

Speculatively Tempting and Very Dangerous

The tendency shown in the USD/MXN to move lower the past week and suddenly jump early this morning clearly show the reaction via changes of outlook when nervous sentiment punctuates the air. Traders who intend on wagering on the USD/MXN simply using technical perceptions, should also consider listening to rhetoric which is likely to come from the U.S and Mexico in the coming days. It doesn’t mean a trader needs to react to all threats and loud diatribes, but speculators should make sure they remain aware of the current landscape which is nervous and is affecting the USD/MXN.

  • The USD/MXN may look overbought, but the potential of swift movement in the currency pair in the near-term will remain quite possible.
  • Risk management in the USD/MXN is highly encouraged for anyone trying to bet on the direction of the currency pair.

USD/MXN Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 20.46300

Current Support: 20.42900

High Target: 20.52400

Low Target: 20.37800

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Robert Petrucci
Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services.

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