The USD/MXN rocketed upwards in early trading this morning, this as U.S tariffs on Mexico are set to begin and financial institutions have become abundantly nervous creating large spreads and volatile price action.
The USD/MXN is trading above the 21.00000 level with lightning quick changes of value being seen. Financial institutions in early trading this morning voted on their outlook for the USD/MXN with an overwhelmingly short-term negative outlook for the Mexican Peso. The jump higher in the currency pair this morning has catapulted the USD/MXN to heights not seen since March 2022.
Wishful thinking late last week took the USD/MXN to low of nearly 20.40500 on Thursday. However, instead of finding a mutual solution to U.S concerns about illegal migrants and smuggling from Mexico into the States, more discord has been heard. As of this morning tariffs are set to be implemented and it doesn’t appear President Sheinbaum of Mexico is ready to give into President Trump’s demands.
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Behavioral Sentiment is in Charge of the USD/MXN
The broad Forex market is volatile this morning, but the USD/MXN is in the spotlight along with the USD/CAD. The political football match between the U.S and Mexico is apparently not ready to become tranquil. Financial institutions are buying the USD and price velocity must be watched today and tomorrow. In fact the remainder of the week is likely to produce volatility in the USD/MXN.
Day traders need to understand financial institutions are concerned about short-term USD/MXN rates, but also their outlooks regarding cash forward positions they transact as guarantees for their commercial clients six and nine months ahead are problematic because of a lack of clarity. The move higher this morning might look like an overreaction, but tariffs while probably harmful for the U.S, potentially could cause much more economic pain for Mexico. The USD/MXN as of this writing is near the 21.11000 level and moving fast.
Sitting on the Sidelines as a Spectator
Conservative day traders are advised to consider watching the USD/MXN price action from the sidelines today. The fluctuations in the currency pair are violent and getting a proper price fill may prove nearly impossible in the short-term. A wide price range should be expected today.
- If a speculator is intent on trading the USD/MXN they clearly need to be practicing risk management with tight controls.
- However, because the currency pair is likely to continue producing fast broad movements, deep pockets and cautious leverage are necessary to stay alive in a trade allowing it to pursue a chosen direction.
- Traders who believe the USD/MXN is overbought need to remember the outlook of financial institutions is ultra-nervous because of an almost total lack of clarity regarding near-term possibilities.
USD/MXN Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 21.13800
Current Support: 21.06300
High Target: 21.18000
Low Target: 20.95200
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