Bearish view
- Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 84,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 94,000.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 94,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 84,000.
The BTC/USD pair held steady on Wednesday as the recent rebound continued. Bitcoin was trading at $88.000, up sharply from the year-to-date low of $76,535. This rebound has helped to support other cryptocurrencies in the past few days.
Bitcoin continued pointing upwards after a report by the Conference Board pointed to earlier interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The data showed that the consumer confidence figure dropped from 100.1 in February to 92.9 in March. This decline was much lower than the median estimate of 94.2.
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Falling consumer confidence is a major red flag that the economy would continue slowing. That’s because consumer spending is the biggest part of the US economy.
Other data showed that new home sales dropped in February, while the house price index remained steady at 4.8%. Therefore, if this trend continues, there is s risk that the Federal Reserve will move to cut interest rates earlier to boost the economy, a move that would benefit Bitcoin and other risky assets.
The BTC/USD pair also rose as signs of demand from the United States rose. Data by SoSoValue shows that Bitcoin ETFs have had inflows in the past seven days. They now have over $36 billion in cumulative inflows, bringing the total net assets to $99.1 billion.
BTC/USD technical analysis
The daily chart shows that the BTC/USD pair bounced back after hitting a low of 76,535 earlier this month. It has remained between the lower and first support lines of the Andrew's Pitchfork tool.
The BTC/USD pair has moved slightly above the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level at 85,880 and the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). That is a sign that bulls are in control for now.
However, the coin has formed a rising wedge pattern and retested the key resistance level at 88,910, the neckline of the double-top pattern at 108,575. A rising wedge is a popular bearish reversal pattern.
Therefore, the pair will likely retreat and retest the key support level at 80,000 in the coming days. A move above the resistance at 94,555 will invalidate the bearish view.
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