- Looking at the US dollar against the Mexican peso, you can see that the market currently hangs around the 20 MXN level.
- This is an area that’s been important multiple times, so it would not be a huge surprise at all to see a bit of a bounce here.
- However, this is a pair that I think is going to be very difficult to get aggressive with, mainly due to the fact that we have a lot of things going on at the same time that can move this pair.
Remember, there are External Pressures
This is a pair that is going to be a little bit different than many others, because quite frankly the thing that people are paying the most attention to right now is the potential tariff war between the United States and Mexico. However, unlike Canada, the Mexicans have seemingly been interested in working things out quickly, and that of course leads for a potential relief rally for the Mexican peso. Beyond that, you also have to keep in mind that if the US economy starts to take off, that could have a little bit of a knock on effect over in Mexico as well, because of course Mexico sends something like 80% of its exports into the United States.
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Think of it this way, if your biggest customer is doing well, so are you. I think that is part of what we might see in Mexico, but there are a lot of headwinds between now and then to start seeing the Mexican peso rally. In the short term, it looks as if the US dollar is trying to stabilize, but the 200 Day EMA currently sits at the 19.75 level, and is rising. If we were to break down below there, then I think the Mexican peso continues to strengthen quite nicely.
That being said, I do think that the short term rally makes a bit of sense as there are a lot of uncertainties out there, and the US dollar could go looking at the 50 Day EMA. The 50 Day EMA currently sits at the 20.29 level, so we could be heading for that area in the short term.
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