- During the trading session on Thursday we have seen US dollar strength, especially against the Mexican peso.
- This does make a certain amount of sense, considering that the president of the United States announce new auto tariffs, which has a direct effect on Mexico as a huge portion of cars sold in the United States are assembled in Mexico, or their parts are produced there.
- That being said, it stands to reason that there could be a little bit of a hit against the Mexican economy in this scenario.
Technical Analysis
The technical analysis for this USD/MXN pair is still positive, although I would point out that the 50 Day EMA seems to be offering a little bit of short term resistance. Beyond that, then we have the 20.50 MXN level that comes into the picture for a potential short-term barrier, followed by a massive ceiling near the 21 MXN level. This is an area that was the top of the range previously fought over, and it’s also worth noting that it’s an area that’s been important multiple times through historical lens.
Underneath, we have the massive support level near the 19.80 MXN level, and after that we have the 200 Day EMA. The 200 Day EMA currently resigns near the 19.65 MXN level, which is where I would start to shift my bias in this pair. Don’t get me wrong, I believe that the Mexican peso could recover, but we need more of a “risk on feel” to the markets.
This pair is a little bit of an outlier when it comes to the way the US dollar is behaving, mainly due to the tariffs Pat that we see in North America. For example, several other currencies have enjoyed quite a bit of strength against the US dollar, but the Mexican peso and the Canadian dollar both are in a special category at this point, so therefore you have to look at them through the lens of whatever happened recently involving tariff talks. I think Mexico is probably going to fare better in the end than Canada, because quite frankly the pushback from Mexico hasn’t been as strong.
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