Signals for the Lira Against the US Dollar Today
Risk 0.50%.
Bullish Entry Points:
- Open a buy order at 37.90.
- Set a stop-loss order below 37.45.
- Move the stop-loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the strong resistance levels at 40.50.
Bearish Entry Points:
- Place a sell order for 40.35.
- Set a stop-loss order at or above 41.50.
- Move the stop loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the support levels at 37.15.
Turkish lira Analysis:
The USD/TRY pair has traded within a limited range throughout the current week, slightly below 38 lira per dollar, as the financial and monetary authorities in Turkey support the stability of the lira's exchange rate. It is worth noting that during the unrest following the arrest of the Istanbul mayor, the Turkish Central Bank injected several billion to control the lira's declines.
Meanwhile, the country's Ministry of Finance announced discussions between the treasury minister and the Governor of the Turkish Central Bank with several international investors through Citigroup and Deutsche Bank to discuss the current economic repercussions, within the framework of the country's financial and monetary authorities' measures to control market fluctuations.
At the same time, the Central Bank worked to reduce the excess cash liquidity in the Turkish financial system to 234 billion liras, a decrease of approximately a quarter compared to pre-unrest levels and the lowest level in four months, with the Central Bank's efforts to tighten monetary policy and contain the repercussions of recent market turmoil accelerating. For the first time in nearly 20 years, the Turkish Central Bank issued bonds to withdraw liquidity, a move that confirms its commitment to curbing excess money supply and supporting market stability.
Regarding data, the Turkish Central Bank revealed in its monthly report on "Sectoral Inflation Expectations" for March 2025, a decline in annual inflation expectations for the next 12 months, with estimates decreasing by 0.7 percentage points to 24.6%, according to market participants' opinions. As for inflation expectations in the real sector, a slight increase of 0.8 percentage points was recorded, reaching 41.1%. Estimates for household price inflation also increased by 0.1 points to 59.3%, reflecting continued living pressures on consumers. Regarding the percentage of households expecting inflation to decline in the next 12 months, it increased by 3 points compared to the previous month, reaching 31.3%, indicating a relative improvement in future expectations among a segment of Turkish households, despite inflation levels remaining high in several sectors.
TRYUSD Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
Technically, the USD/TRY pair has maintained its stability throughout the week, trading within the same range. The dollar price has stabilized in trading between a small ascending trendline, and the support level concentrated at 38.13 lira. Despite the current stability, a state of negativity continues around the Turkish lira price expectations, with the pair targeting 38.50 and 39.00 lira levels, respectively.
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