My previous BTC/USD signal on 27th March was not triggered.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
Risk 0.50% per trade.
Trades must be entered prior to 5pm Tokyo time Tuesday.
Long Trade Ideas
- Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $73,620, $72,095, or $71,529.
- Put the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Short Trade Ideas
- Go short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $76,593, $79,599, or $81,386.
- Put the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
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BTC/USD Analysis
I wrote in my previous BTC/USD forecast about one week and a half ago that risk sentiment had deteriorated further reinforcing the bearish case which was supported by technical analysis, so I suggested looking for a short trade from any bearish failure at a test of a resistance level.
This did not set up this day, but as the price has moved considerably lower since then, I was on the right track.
Markets are in turmoil since last Wednesday’s announcement by President Trump of a new 10% default tariff on imports, with many countries subject to considerably higher levels of 20% or more, notably the EU, Japan, China, Canada, and Mexico – the USA’s major trading partners. Stock markets around the world are undergoing massive selloffs. Forget about Bitcoin being digital Gold or some kind of hedge against risk – Bitcoin IS risk, and so it is no surprise that it has suffered a 10% drop since Friday, noting technical levels but slicing through them quite easily.
One of the best things about trading Bitcoin is that it tends to respect support and resistance levels, so there might be scope even in this environment for a short trade entry from a clear and strong rejection of any resistance level. I think this is worth trying but only with a very small position size, as we could see a strong bullish movement at any time if a major nation announced talks with the USA over the new tariffs. Over the past hour at the time of writing, we have already seen a strong bullish bounce.
I would only look for short trades in Bitcoin today.
There is nothing of high importance due today regarding Bitcoin or the US Dollar.
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