The USD/ZAR in early trading this morning is elevated and challenging prices not seen since April 2024, this as financial institutions have used negative global market sentiment as a lynchpin to bet against the Rand.
The broad global financial markets are in chaos early this morning and have been under a dark violent shadow since early Thursday of last week. The USD/ZAR is seeing a massive surge higher and finished Friday around the 19.20000 vicinity going into the weekend. This after starting last week near the USD/ZAR ratio of almost 18.28000.
Buying of the USD/ZAR has continued this morning and the 19.37000 vicinity is in sight as of this writing in extremely fast changing Forex conditions. Day traders who are contemplating betting on the USD/ZAR today may want to second and triple guess this consideration. Global Forex will remain dangerous and the USD/ZAR is among the most violent currency pairs because of a complex host of reasons. The price spread in the USD/ZAR is wide this morning.
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Trump Tariffs and Fear of Wrong Directions
Yes, the Trump tariff policies have caught financial institutions by surprise because of their lack of precision and seemingly punitive ambitions. Global equities are being purged in the near-term as large traders await an opportunity to search for values. However, domestic political and fiscal issues in South Africa have also been escalating into troubled terrain the past few months. The combination of Trump tariffs and nervous conditions in financial institutions dealing with South African concerns have ignited a wave of buying in the USD/ZAR.
The USD/ZAR is not correlating to the broad Forex market. Yes, choppy results have been seen in other major currencies paired against the USD, but the storm in the South African Rand appears to be more volatile. Sustaining highs above the 19.00000 level going into this past weekend and an inability to trade lower this morning is a sign nervous tension is high regarding outlook for the USD/ZAR. This leads to the conclusion financial institutions were looking for a reason to push the USD/ZAR higher.
Behavioral Sentiment and Waiting for Positive Impetus
The broad global markets are certainly waiting for signs of positive impetus to spring forth. But for the moment optimism is in short supply. Traders looking for value and who believe the USD/ZAR is overbought as it traverses highs not seen since April of last year may be proven correct – eventually.
- However, for the moment day traders are advised to watch the USD/ZAR instead of trading it, unless the speculators understands the dynamics of the betting market which is in complete control for the moment.
- Looking for downside in the near-term may be tempting for the USD/ZAR, but it could prove a very expensive mistake if broad market sentiment in the global markets continue to produce historic levels of selling.
USD/ZAR Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 19.42000
Current Support: 19.36200
High Target: 19.47000
Low Target: 19.33500
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