By: Doug Rosen
On the weekly time frame this pair is sitting on a support line that does not want to be broken. It has been pierced a couple times but no candle closes below the line. This is a crucial area because something has got to give sooner or later. The weekly 5 ema is crossing below the 233 and heading down as well as the stochastics is pointing down so I am watching for a break of this line.
On the daily time frame price just keeps gracefully riding down along the ema's, occasionally poking the 13 ema then retreating. Price is approaching the 78.6 fib level of the previous move up at 1.3380 which is just at the bottom of the price trap price is currently in. This should cause price to jump when it is reached and make a fib and possible we may see a bearish breakout occur.
Moving on to the 4 hour time frame price is in the nose of a 4 hour price trap and just above a respected support line at around 1.3440. This will be an interesting level to watch since a break below this level could push price down around 100 pips or a bounce up could send price up 50 - 70 pips.
On the 1 hour time frame price is being pushed downward by the 5 ema and is just below the weekly M2 pivot. If price falls below 1.3440 last week's low is at 1.3421 and no doubt I would expect a bounce off that level. The daily M1 pivot point is at 1.3436 which will add to the confluence I pointed out at the 1.3440 level.
